Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

Liberal Party of Canada
Majority

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

185
of 343 seats • 172 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

343 total seats

LPC
Liberal Party of Canada
185 +16
★
CPC
Conservative Party of Canada
112 -32
BQ
Bloc Québécois
31 +9
NDP
New Democratic Party
13 +6
GPC
Green Party of Canada
2 +1
Popular Vote

General vote share

LPC
LPC 42.6%
CPC
CPC 36.6%
NDP
NDP 9.0%
BQ
BQ 7.2%
GPC
GPC 2.6%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2025

RegionLPCCPCBQNDPGPCTotal
Alberta AB
5 +3
30 -4
0
2 +1
0
37
Atlantic Canada ATL
29 +5
3 -5
0
0
0
32
British Columbia BC
22 +2
16 -3
0
4 +1
1
43
Ontario ON
79 +9
39 -13
0
3 +3
1 +1
122
Prairies (Sask/Manitoba) PR
10 +3
16 -4
0
2 +1
0
28
Quebec QC
38 -6
8 -3
31 +9
1
0
78
Territories TR
2
0
0
1
0
3
Total18511231132343
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
Parties:
LPC LPC
145-222 185 seats
CPC CPC
78-151 114 seats
BQ BQ
22-38 30 seats
NDP NDP
6-16 12 seats
04488132176220264
172
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (172)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
LPC
185184.6145–222
CPC
114114.478–151
BQ
3030.322–38
NDP
1211.76–16
GPC
22.00–3
PPC
00.0-1–0
OTH
00.0-1–0

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

LPC Liberal Party of Canada
96.4%
Majority: 74.5% Minority: 21.9%
CPC Conservative Party of Canada
3.4%
Majority: 0.1% Minority: 3.3%
Any party wins majority 74.6%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

LPC LPC majority
74.5%
LPC LPC minority
21.9%
CPC CPC minority
3.3%
Tie
0.2%
CPC CPC majority
0.1%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

AB
CPC 30
CPC
ATL
LPC 29
LPC
BC
LPC 22
LPC
ON
LPC 79
LPC
PR
CPC 16
CPC
QC
LPC 38
LPC
TR
LPC 2
LPC