Election Projections & Analysis

Riding-level projections, interactive maps, and polling analysis for Canadian federal and provincial elections

Canada

Canada

Federal

Federal Election

seats in the House of Commons

LPC projected to win 156 of 343 seats (172 for majority)
LPC
LPC 156 seats
CPC
CPC 134 seats
BQ
BQ 36 seats
NDP
NDP 15 seats
GPC
GPC 2 seats

Provincial Elections

British Columbia

British Columbia

BCNDP projected to win 49 of 93 (47 for majority)
BCNDP
BCNDP 49
CPBC
CPBC 42
GPBC
GPBC 2
Alberta

Alberta

UCP projected to win 45 of 87 (44 for majority)
UCP
UCP 45
ANDP
ANDP 42
Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan

SP projected to win 35 of 61 (31 for majority)
SP
SP 35
SKNDP
SKNDP 26
Manitoba

Manitoba

MBNDP projected to win 40 of 57 (29 for majority)
MBNDP
MBNDP 40
PCMB
PCMB 16
MLP
MLP 1
Ontario

Ontario

PCPO projected to win 73 of 124 (63 for majority)
PCPO
PCPO 73
ONDP
ONDP 28
OLP
OLP 20
GPO
GPO 2
OTH
OTH 1
Quebec

Quebec

PQ projected to win 86 of 125 (63 for majority)
PQ
PQ 86
PLQ
PLQ 29
PCQ
PCQ 7
QS
QS 3
New Brunswick

New Brunswick

NBLP projected to win 33 of 49 (25 for majority)
NBLP
NBLP 33
PCNB
PCNB 14
GPNB
GPNB 2
Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia

PCNS projected to win 40 of 55 (28 for majority)
PCNS
PCNS 40
NSNDP
NSNDP 12
NSLP
NSLP 2
OTH
OTH 1
Prince Edward Island

Prince Edward Island

PCPEI projected to win 15 of 27 (14 for majority)
PCPEI
PCPEI 15
PEILP
PEILP 10
GPPEI
GPPEI 2
Newfoundland and Labrador

Newfoundland and Labrador

PCNL projected to win 20 of 40 (21 for majority)
PCNL
PCNL 20
LPNL
LPNL 16
OTH
OTH 2
NLNDP
NLNDP 2

About Poliwave

Poliwave provides riding-level electoral projections using advanced statistical modeling, historical election analysis, and current polling data. Our Monte Carlo simulations generate probability distributions for seat outcomes.

Poliwave does not conduct polls. Projections are statistical estimates based on publicly available polling data.