About PoliWave
PoliWave is an independently developed electoral projection website focusing on Canadian politics. Founded by Raymond Liu, PoliWave provides accurate and transparent electoral insights.
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PoliWave's Methodology
PoliWave employs a multi-faceted approach to electoral projections, integrating proportional swing models, demographic adjustments, and vote transfer dynamics. Below is the core projection formula:
\[
P = \left(R \cdot \left(\frac{P_c}{B_c} \cdot S_1 + \left(P_c - B_c\right) \cdot S_2 \right)\right) + \left(D + T\right)
\]
The values are adjusted to ensure consistency with the overall polling data and normalized to a total of 100%.
Where:
- \(P\): Projected vote share for a party in a riding.
- \(R\): Historical riding results for the party.
- \(P_c\): Current polling percentage for the party in the province.
- \(B_c\): Baseline general electionresult for the party.
- \(S_1, S_2\): Scaling factors for proportional and uniform swings.
- \(D\): Demographic adjustment factor, reflecting local socioeconomic data.
- \(T\): Transfer matrix capturing inter-party vote flows.
What Data Does PoliWave Use?
- Polling averages
- Historical election results
- Demographics: Income, age, ethnicity, education level, and more
Past Accuracy
| Elections | Accuracy | Projected Seats | Results | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 BC | 86% |
CON: 46
NDP: 45
GRN: 2
|
NDP: 47
CON: 44
GRN: 2
|
- |
| 2024 NB | 90% |
LIB: 26
PC: 21
GRN: 2
|
LIB: 31
PC: 16
GRN: 2
|
- |
| 2024 SK | 92% |
NDP: 32
SKP: 29
|
SKP: 34
NDP: 27
|
- |
| 2024 NS | 98% |
PC: 44
NDP: 8
LIB: 2
OTH: 1
|
PC: 43
NDP: 9
LIB: 2
OTH: 1
|
- |
| 2025 ON | 85% |
PC: 87
LIB: 19
NDP: 15
GRN: 2
OTH: 1
|
PC: 80
NDP: 27
LIB: 14
GRN: 2
OTH: 1
|
- |